Flávio Bolsonaro entered Brazil's presidential runoff with an electoral advantage that looked increasingly difficult for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to overcome. Three weeks after the first round, that lead has disappeared in one of the country's most closely watched opinion polls, leaving the two candidates level with just days remaining before the vote.
The latest Datafolha survey, released on October 22, puts Lula and Bolsonaro at 50% each when only valid votes are counted. Among all respondents, Bolsonaro retains a narrow numerical advantage of 47% against Lula's 46%, with 5% intending to cast blank or invalid ballots and 2% undecided.
The movement has been gradual. Datafolha recorded a 52% to 48% advantage for Bolsonaro in the first week of the runoff campaign, followed by 51% to 49% on October 15. The latest figures complete that narrowing, although the changes remain within the survey's two-percentage-point margin of error.
The contest began with Bolsonaro ahead. According to official first-round results published by Brazil's Superior Electoral Court, the senator secured 47.03% of valid votes on October 4, compared with Lula's 45.16%. Bolsonaro received approximately 56.1 million votes, more than 2.2 million ahead of the incumbent.
The election now brings two competing political traditions into direct confrontation. Lula, 80, is seeking a fourth presidential term after returning to power in 2023. Bolsonaro, 45, is the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro and represents the Liberal Party, carrying his father's conservative political legacy into his first presidential campaign.
Voter resistance to both candidates remains substantial. Datafolha found that 46% would not vote for Bolsonaro under any circumstances, while 45% expressed the same rejection of Lula. The president's administration received a negative assessment from 39% of respondents, against 36% who rated it positively.
There is also little evidence of a large pool of voters still making up their minds. The survey found that 94% had already settled firmly on their presidential choice. Among supporters of candidates eliminated in the first round, however, 23% said they could still change their vote.
The polling picture is not uniform. Other recent surveys, including PoderData/Aya and Real Time Big Data, have continued to show Bolsonaro numerically ahead, although the size of his advantage varies by institute. Datafolha's exact 50–50 result therefore describes its own latest findings rather than a consensus across all polling organisations.
Datafolha interviewed 2,520 voters across 154 municipalities between October 20 and 22. The survey was registered with the electoral authorities under BR-09709/2026.
Brazil's electoral calendar sets the runoff for Sunday, October 25, with voting scheduled between 8 a.m. and 5 p.m. Brasília time. Nearly 159 million Brazilians are eligible to vote, with the final decision resting on ballots rather than the narrow differences separating the latest surveys.
