Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s governing coalition has comfortably retained a parliamentary seat in southern Italy, defeating the first direct electoral challenge from Roberto Vannacci’s new far-right party.

Fabio Roscioli, the centre-right candidate backed by Meloni’s coalition, won the Reggio Calabria-Locri by-election with 51.02% of the vote. Frank Benedetto, representing a broad centre-left alliance, finished second with 36.59%.

Domenico Giannetta, the candidate fielded by Vannacci’s National Future, received 10.94%. While sufficient to establish the party as a visible force, the result fell short of the breakthrough its leader had sought in a constituency traditionally favourable to the right.

The by-election was held on September 27 and 28 to replace Forza Italia lawmaker Francesco Cannizzaro, who resigned from the Chamber of Deputies after being elected mayor of Reggio Calabria in May.

Roscioli, a lawyer and treasurer of Forza Italia, was supported by the parties governing Italy: Meloni’s Brothers of Italy, Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini’s League and Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani’s Forza Italia.

The contest attracted national attention because it was the first time National Future had faced Meloni’s coalition at the ballot box. Vannacci, a former army general, founded the party in February after breaking with the League and has since positioned himself to the right of the government on migration, national identity and social policy.

National Future has risen to between 8% and 9% in national opinion polls, overtaking some of Meloni’s junior coalition partners. Its emergence threatens to divide Italy’s right-wing electorate ahead of the general election expected in 2027.

Vannacci had invested heavily in the Calabria contest, visiting the region and presenting the vote as an opportunity to demonstrate that his party could challenge the established centre-right. His candidate, Giannetta, had previously belonged to Forza Italia and served as its group leader in the Calabria regional council.

The result showed that National Future can attract a significant minority of conservative voters but has not yet displaced the existing coalition in one of its strongest regions. Forza Italia leaders argued that the outcome demonstrated the governing parties could defeat both the centre-left and Vannacci without bringing his movement into their alliance.

However, the centre-left also improved its performance compared with the 2022 general election. That provides some encouragement to opposition parties attempting to construct a broad coalition capable of challenging Meloni nationally.

Turnout presents the largest qualification. Only 22.34% of eligible voters participated, compared with 49.4% in the constituency during the 2022 general election. By-elections generally attract fewer voters, but the sharp fall makes it difficult to treat the result as an accurate measure of national support.

The vote also does not resolve the strategic question facing Meloni. If National Future continues polling near 9% nationally, it could draw enough support from the governing parties to weaken their chances of securing a parliamentary majority. Incorporating Vannacci into the coalition could preserve the combined right-wing vote but create internal tensions over foreign policy, immigration and relations with the European Union.

For now, the governing alliance has passed its first electoral confrontation with the new party. Vannacci has demonstrated that National Future possesses a base, but the Calabria result suggests it will require more than national polling momentum to break Meloni’s coalition at constituency level.