Voters in the eastern German state of Saxony-Anhalt headed to the polls on Sunday in an election that could deliver a historic breakthrough for the far-right Alternative für Deutschland, potentially giving the party control of a state government for the first time.
The AfD entered election day as the clear favourite, with opinion polls consistently putting it at around 40% or higher. A victory would represent a dramatic increase from the 20.8% the party received in Saxony-Anhalt's 2021 state election.
The Christian Democratic Union, or CDU, which has led the state government for 24 years, was polling a distant second at around 23%.
The election is being closely watched across Germany because the AfD could potentially secure an outright parliamentary majority even without winning more than 50% of the popular vote. Germany's electoral system requires parties to win at least 5% to enter the state parliament, meaning votes cast for parties that fall below the threshold are effectively excluded when seats are distributed.
If enough smaller parties fail to cross that threshold, an AfD result of around 40% could potentially translate into more than half of the seats in the state legislature.
That would allow the party to overcome Germany's political “firewall,” under which mainstream parties have consistently refused to enter coalitions with the AfD.
The party's lead candidate, Ulrich Siegmund, has made clear that this is his objective. Siegmund has said he will seek the position of state premier only if the AfD wins an outright majority and can govern alone, arguing that coalition compromises would prevent the party from implementing its programme.
The 36-year-old has emerged as one of the AfD's most prominent younger politicians. He has served in Saxony-Anhalt's parliament since 2016 and has built a substantial following on social media while presenting a more polished public image than some of the party's other figures.
His campaign has focused heavily on immigration, public safety, education and German national identity. The AfD has promised tougher deportation policies, changes to public broadcasting and measures intended to reinforce what it describes as traditional German values.
The party's Saxony-Anhalt branch has been classified as a confirmed right-wing extremist organisation by the state's domestic intelligence agency. The AfD rejects the designation and says such classifications are politically motivated.
The CDU's Sven Schulze, who became Saxony-Anhalt's minister-president earlier this year, is seeking to prevent an AfD takeover. He has ruled out governing with the AfD and argues that the state should continue to be led by parties from Germany's democratic political centre.
If the AfD wins the most votes but falls short of an outright majority, Schulze could therefore remain in power by attempting to assemble a coalition of other parties. That could prove difficult, however, because several potential coalition partners are hovering close to the 5% threshold.
The election also represents an important test for Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his CDU-led federal government.
Merz has adopted tougher positions on migration and security partly in an effort to win back voters who have moved towards the AfD. But the party has continued to gain support, particularly in Germany's eastern states, where dissatisfaction over migration, living costs and the country's political establishment remains strong.
Saxony-Anhalt has around 2.1 million inhabitants and was part of communist East Germany before reunification in 1990. Like other eastern states, it has experienced demographic decline and economic challenges since reunification, although it has also attracted substantial investment in areas including renewable energy and advanced manufacturing.
The AfD's rise there reflects a broader shift in German politics. The party is already the largest opposition force in the Bundestag and has expanded well beyond the protest movement from which it emerged after its founding in 2013.
A state government would take that rise into fundamentally new territory. The AfD would gain direct responsibility for areas including policing, education and state administration, while demonstrating that the political firewall surrounding the party can potentially be overcome through an outright electoral majority.
For that reason, the result in Saxony-Anhalt is likely to resonate far beyond the state itself. An AfD majority would represent its biggest institutional breakthrough yet and could reshape Germany's political landscape ahead of the next federal election in 2029.
